1.2 million homes. A pipeline that isn't keeping up.

Australia committed to building 1.2 million new homes by June 2029 under the National Housing Accord. It's already behind. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council's State of the Housing System 2025 report forecasts just 938,000 dwellings will be built over that period, a shortfall of 262,000. No state or territory is on track to meet its share of the target.

The numbers at a state level are just as stark. NSW has committed to 377,000 new homes as its share of the national target. Queensland's Homes for Queenslanders plan sets a target of one million new homes by 2046, a pace roughly 10% faster than anything the state has built before.

The ambition is real. The gap between ambition and delivery is widening.

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Ground risk and the cost of finding out late

The policy conversation about housing supply focuses on planning approvals, infrastructure charges, construction costs, and labour. These are real constraints. Less discussed is the quality of decision-making earlier in the development process, particularly around ground conditions.

Ground is one of the biggest risks in residential development. A site carrying highly reactive clay, filled ground, or complex geology needs a more engineered footing, which directly affects construction cost. A site outside the scope of the Australian Standard for residential footings (AS 2870) requires specific geotechnical engineering input that can reshape the entire design. In a market where construction costs have been rising sharply, the difference between a well-understood site and a poorly understood one has meaningful financial consequences.

The problem is that ground information typically enters the development process too late to influence the decisions that matter most. Physical ground investigation requires site access, a contracted driller, laboratory testing, and report preparation. By the time that work is complete, the site has usually been acquired, a concept design is underway, and a budget has been set. If the ground conditions don't match the assumptions behind that budget, the result is redesign and cost blowout rather than an informed decision not to proceed or to negotiate a different price.

Ground risk is best understood at due diligence, preliminary assessment, and concept design stages. That is when the information can actually change what happens next.

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Earlier information, better decisions

A desktop geotechnical assessment draws on existing soil survey data, geological mapping, and historical borehole records to produce an indicative site classification without site access or physical investigation. It is not a substitute for a full geotechnical investigation. It is the right tool for the early stages of a project, when the questions being asked are whether a site is worth pursuing, what ground-related costs should be carried in a feasibility, and whether the design concept needs to account for difficult foundation conditions.

Used at due diligence, a desktop assessment can inform an acquisition decision before contracts are exchanged. Used at concept design, it gives the architect and engineer a basis for early footing assumptions. Used across a portfolio of sites, it helps a developer prioritise investigation resources toward the lots that genuinely need them.

The NHSAC's 2025 report identifies high construction costs as one of the key factors constraining new housing supply. Better ground information earlier in the process doesn't solve that problem, but it reduces one of its most avoidable contributors: projects that encounter ground conditions they weren't designed or budgeted for.

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Accessible data, faster answers

The data needed for a desktop geotechnical assessment already exists. National soil surveys, state geological mapping, and historical borehole records from decades of previous investigations across Queensland and NSW are, in principle, available. In practice, that data is fragmented across government databases and private archives, inconsistently formatted, and difficult to access without significant manual effort.

Platforms that automate that data integration can produce an indicative AS 2870 site classification in a fraction of the time it would take manually. The methodology doesn't change. The standard doesn't change. What changes is when and how easily a developer can access the ground intelligence they need to make a better decision.

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What this means at scale

Meeting Australia's housing targets requires more homes to be built, faster, and at costs that make projects viable. That depends on good decisions being made throughout the development process, including the earliest stages when ground conditions are still something a developer can respond to rather than absorb.

A target of 1.2 million homes won't be reached without systemic improvements across planning, construction, labour, and investment. Getting ground risk information to developers earlier and more accessibly is one part of that. It won't close the shortfall on its own. But better-informed projects, fewer cost blowouts, and more sites assessed properly before money is committed all contribute to a development sector that can deliver at the scale Australia needs.

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LayeredGeo is an automated geotechnical desktop reporting platform serving the residential development sector in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Our platform delivers fast desktop site assessments to support better-informed decisions at due diligence, preliminary assessment, and concept design stages. Get in touch.

About this article. This article was drafted by an AI writing tool using LayeredGeo's data and published automatically. It is general information about how property and ground conditions are commonly assessed in Australia. It is not engineering, planning, legal or financial advice, it is not specific to any property, and it may contain errors or be out of date. Check anything that matters against the source dataset or a suitably qualified professional before you rely on it. If you spot something wrong, tell us at hello@layeredgeo.com.au and we will fix it.

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